Will the Magento Marketplace become irrelevant?

It’s under pressure. When AI lets one engineer ship a custom module in hours, the “buy a paid extension from Marketplace” decision starts losing to “build it custom in two days.” That’s already happening for simple needs (basic UI tweaks, simple integrations). The Marketplace stays relevant for: (a) complex integrations with named 3rd parties (Avalara, Klarna, Adyen) where the vendor maintains the bridge; (b) anything that needs ongoing vendor support and SLA; (c) the EQP badge as a trust signal. Adobe needs to: speed up EQP cycles, lower commission, and make AI-friendly module discovery a priority. If they don’t, vendors will publish directly on GitHub or Packagist and bypass the Marketplace.